THE FRACTURED VERDICT in the Karnataka Assembly election is likely to pave the way for a coalition government of the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular), which are ideologically opposed to the single largest party, the Bharatiya Janata Party. In this sense, the State Assembly will throw up possibilities similar to those in the 14th Lok Sabha: a post-election alliance of the Congress, the Left and the left-of-centre, secular parties. However, the difference is that in Karnataka, the fortunes of the Congress are on the downswing with the party sliding to the second spot behind the BJP. The S.M. Krishna Government appears to have suffered from an anti-incumbency factor, yielding ground to the JD(S) in the south and the BJP in the north. However, with the Congress winning 65 of the total 224 seats, the mandate cannot be oversimplistically interpreted as a rejection of the Krishna administration. In contrast to Chandrababu Naidu in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, the Chief Minister was able to hold his own against the alliance of the BJP and the Janata Dal (United).
There is no doubt that the Congress was able to cut its losses partly because of the strong showing of the JD(S). However, it is equally true that the track record of the Krishna Government was good enough to ensure that anti-establishment sentiments did not force a polarisation of the votes. This is also borne out by the result of the Lok Sabha election in the State, in which the BJP has done extremely well. The Vajpayee factor appears to have worked for the BJP in the Lok Sabha election but not in the Assembly election, where the Krishna factor too was in play. Although the drought situation in Karnataka was almost as bad as in Andhra Pradesh, the Congress did not suffer to the same extent at the hands of voters. There were some rewards for good governance.
Now it is for the JD(S), led by former Prime Minister Deve Gowda, to set the terms for providing support to a non-BJP Government. The JD(S) might have problems in endorsing Mr. Krishna, who comes from the same caste and region as Mr. Gowda, for the post of the Chief Minister. As competitors for the same Vokkaliga support base in the south, Mr. Gowda and Mr. Krishna will be uncomfortable in each other's company. Moreover, Mr. Gowda might want a new face at the helm if only to help shape a perception that the next government, with JD(S) participation, is markedly different from the previous Congress Government. There are some leaders in the JD(S) who are not averse to a tie-up with the BJP, especially if the BJP is more accommodative in power sharing. Thus far Mr. Gowda has been saying his party would not support either the Congress or the BJP, but a tie-up with one or the other is now inevitable. If the JD(S) is to remain true to its secular label, then its options are limited. Either way, the bargaining is likely to revolve around the chief ministership.
There is no doubt that the Congress was able to cut its losses partly because of the strong showing of the JD(S). However, it is equally true that the track record of the Krishna Government was good enough to ensure that anti-establishment sentiments did not force a polarisation of the votes. This is also borne out by the result of the Lok Sabha election in the State, in which the BJP has done extremely well. The Vajpayee factor appears to have worked for the BJP in the Lok Sabha election but not in the Assembly election, where the Krishna factor too was in play. Although the drought situation in Karnataka was almost as bad as in Andhra Pradesh, the Congress did not suffer to the same extent at the hands of voters. There were some rewards for good governance.
Now it is for the JD(S), led by former Prime Minister Deve Gowda, to set the terms for providing support to a non-BJP Government. The JD(S) might have problems in endorsing Mr. Krishna, who comes from the same caste and region as Mr. Gowda, for the post of the Chief Minister. As competitors for the same Vokkaliga support base in the south, Mr. Gowda and Mr. Krishna will be uncomfortable in each other's company. Moreover, Mr. Gowda might want a new face at the helm if only to help shape a perception that the next government, with JD(S) participation, is markedly different from the previous Congress Government. There are some leaders in the JD(S) who are not averse to a tie-up with the BJP, especially if the BJP is more accommodative in power sharing. Thus far Mr. Gowda has been saying his party would not support either the Congress or the BJP, but a tie-up with one or the other is now inevitable. If the JD(S) is to remain true to its secular label, then its options are limited. Either way, the bargaining is likely to revolve around the chief ministership.
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