Monsoon drama

It has been a ghastly summer. Temperatures soared in March and April, and May too was exceptionally hot. Heat waves swept through large swathes of the country and claimed many lives. Besides, the summer rains were below par. There was much relief when the India Meteorological Department announced that the cooling rains of the monsoon had reached Kerala on March 31. The monsoon's progress thereafter was tardy for several days. Matters were not helped by the powerful Cyclone Phet that sprang forth in the Arabian Sea. But the monsoon then bestirred itself and resumed its march across the country. That its advance has not matched the idealised ‘normal' depicted in meteorological maps should not be a cause for concern. It must be remembered that the vast bands of rain-bearing clouds wend their way north in fits and starts. Over half the country has already received normal or excess rainfall, and nationwide rainfall currently shows a deficit of just three per cent. However, the monsoon is said to be entering a weak phase and its further progress could be temporarily slowed.

It is a far cry from last year when the monsoon ended in a severe drought. Then things went wrong from the start and the rainfall in June was close to half of what it ought to have been. Scientists say that the surface waters of the Bay of Bengal being warmer than the equatorial Indian Ocean is crucial for the advance of the monsoon. Last year that was not the case and the June rains suffered as a result. This year, on the other hand, the temperature difference is favourable for the monsoon. Last year, the coup de grace was delivered by an El Nino, a warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that generally retards the monsoon. Consequently, both August and September rains were badly affected. The El Nino has dissipated and many models are now predicting the likelihood of a switch in the coming months to a La Nina, El Nino's cool sibling that is good for the monsoon. The eastern equatorial Pacific has already begun displaying below-average temperatures. Climate models have responded to this change and are indicating plentiful rains in the months ahead. Even if that prediction is correct, it does not mean that all parts of the country will uniformly get such rain. Inevitably, as happens in any monsoon, some places and regions will get too little and others too much. Nevertheless, the current outlook for the country as a whole is in favour of a good monsoon. Just recently, Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee declared that the Indian economy could achieve a growth rate of 8.5 per cent this year if the monsoon played its part. The monsoon, it seems, is inclined to oblige.