Not out of the woods yet

Madhav Kumar Nepal may finally have resigned as Prime Minister of Nepal but there will be no end to the political crisis in South Asia's youngest republic unless all its major political parties resolve to form a national government and do so quickly. There will be plenty of time in the future for adversarial politics but the moment now is for consensus so that the country's Constitution is finalised and fresh elections can be held. As the single largest party, the Maoists have the right to expect that the prime ministership of any national government should be held by them. This was the arrangement after the 2008 Constituent Assembly elections. Unfortunately, the government headed by the Maoist leader, Prachanda, was undercut by the Nepali Congress's refusal to join it and by the insubordination of the Nepal Army brass. Prachanda's resignation, which followed the misuse of presidential prerogatives to reinstate the dismissed army chief, allowed Mr. Nepal to form the government. But history will consider the administration he headed as a wasted year. India's role in needlessly prolonging this political stagnation is also unlikely to be judged very kindly.

Thanks to the stalemate, the original deadline for writing the new Constitution was missed. But unless serious steps are taken by the political parties, there is no reason to assume the new target date will be met. At the heart of this damaging crisis is the failure of the NC and UML to address the organisational and political shortcomings that led to their electoral defeat in 2008. The Maoists may not be able to repeat their spectacular performance next time round but chances are that their two major opponents will lose further ground. Under the circumstances, the principal leaders of these two parties would prefer to play backroom politics. That is why the NC and the CPN(UML) leadership will make every effort to ensure the Maoists do not head the government again and instead stake their own claim. But should a consensus evolve in favour of a Maoist-headed government, the two parties are likely to insist that the former rebels nominate someone other than Prachanda to be Prime Minister. On their part, the Maoists need to act with great maturity and restraint. Nothing should be allowed to come in the way of an arrangement that will facilitate the writing of the Constitution and the completion of the peace process through the integration of Maoist combatants and the democratisation of the Nepal army. It is clear that only a national unity government led by the Maoists can accomplish these tasks. The Maoists must be prepared to make reasonable compromises and concessions in order to win the trust of the other parties, and call their bluff.